The battery company was attacked by both sides, and the power lithium battery company was "swimming naked"?
S jedne strane, div od litij baterija CATL prošao je IPO sastanak za 24 dana, postavljajući novi rekord za IPO sastanak; s druge strane, Jianruiwo Neng je još jednom objavio najavu smanjenja dioničara, a ujedno je predvidio gubitak od više od 300 milijuna juana u prvom tromjesečju ove godine. Morate znati da je Jianrui Wo Neng bio na trećem mjestu po instaliranom kapacitetu domaćih baterija u 2017., drugi nakon CATL-a i BYD-a, te je ostvario dobit od 254 milijuna u prvom tromjesečju prošle godine. Kad je tehnički put prilagođen i domaća nova politika subvencioniranja energetske politike postupno povučena, intenzivirala se rekonstrukcija tvrtki za proizvodnju elektroenergetskih baterija. Prošle godine, ne samo da su CATL i BYD razmijenili mjesta, već je opao i učinak mnogih malih i srednjih-poduzeća.
Baterijska poduzeća su napadnuta s obje strane
Buffett once said that you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. The new energy vehicle industry, which was once in full swing, ushered in a major reshuffle after the subsidy ebb.
On the evening of April 9, Jian Rui Wo Neng, who was in crisis, said that the company's loss has increased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. Jianrui Wo Neng and Waterma said that the occurrence of the breakage incident and the impact of the 2017 national subsidy retreat on the market were misjudged, and the scale expansion was not controlled in time, resulting in untimely payment. This opened the tip of the iceberg.
The predecessor of Jianrui Weneng was Jianrui Fire. In 2016, it acquired 100 percent equity of Waterma and entered the field of lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle power battery and automobile starting power supply. However, the new energy vehicle industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. The decline in subsidies has led to a decline in the profits of battery companies. In 2017, BYD's net profit also fell by 19.51 percent year-on-year, and it is expected to drop by 75.24 percent -91.75 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Akumulatorska baterija temeljna je komponenta novog energetskog vozila, a trošak čini 30 posto -50 posto cijelog vozila. Subvencija se smanjuje, a poduzeće za električne baterije također mora podnijeti odgovarajući pritisak smanjenja cijene. S jedne strane, kupci vrše pritisak na sniženje cijena baterija, a s druge strane dobavljači uzvodno podižu cijene. Može se zamisliti situacija s baterijama. Čak i u CATL-u, gdje su ternarne litijeve baterije činile gotovo polovicu njegove prodaje u 2017., bruto marže njegovog glavnog proizvoda energetskih baterijskih sustava od 2015. do 2017. bile su 41,40 posto, 44,84 posto, odnosno 35,25 posto, što je značajno palo u 2017.
Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed. Among them, the most expensive cathode material, cobalt, currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton, and is known as "cobalt grandma" in the industry. The second is the reduction of state subsidies. In 2018, the subsidy quota for new energy buses will be reduced by about 40 percent , which will be officially implemented on June 12 this year. In 2017, the installed capacity of batteries with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7 percent . This part will not be subsidized this year, which will promote the accelerated reshuffle of the power battery industry. It is expected that new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, and competition with international giants without subsidies will be a major test for domestic power battery companies.
Zamjena prednje ploče akumulatora
Prema podacima, prvih pet globalnih prodaja baterija za napajanje u 2017. bili su CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Waterma i LG Chem, s prodajom od 11,84 GWh, 10 GWh, 7,2 GWh, 5,5 GWh i 4,5 GWh. U inozemstvu, Panasonic je vodeći u proizvodnji baterija za napajanje u Japanu, a LG i Samsung dvije su baterije za napajanje u Južnoj Koreji. Sa svojom ogromnom veličinom, oni iskorištavaju svoje razmjere i zauzimaju vodeću poziciju u baterijskoj tehnologiji i automatizaciji.
In 2017, CATL's power battery shipments increased by 73 percent , surpassing Panasonic in one fell swoop and taking the world's first position in the industry. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, which can better reflect market share, CATL was 10.4GWh in 2017, and one company monopolized nearly 30 percent of the market. The company was valued at 130 billion when it was issued, and it is the first stock of power batteries that is well-deserved in terms of listing speed and valuation.
U 2016. BYD je bio na prvom mjestu u Kini i na drugom mjestu u svijetu po energetskim baterijama. S iznenadnom pojavom Ningde ere, njegova izvedba je opala u 2017.
Međutim, zbog naglog povećanja kapaciteta proizvodnje električnih baterija i pada politike subvencija za nova energetska vozila, cijena akumulatorskog sustava u CATL-u uvelike je smanjena, s 2,28 yuana/Wh u 2015. na 1,41 yuan/Wh u 2017. godini kumulativno smanjenje do 38,26 posto. Neto dobit nakon odbitka ne-odbitnih vrijednosti u CATL-u također je pala s 2,96 milijardi juana u 2016. na 2,47 milijardi juana u 2017.
Trenutačno je glavna tehnička ruta novih energetskih baterija za putnička vozila trostruke baterije (ternarne baterije su također glavni tehnički put CATL-a), odnosno litijeve baterije s nikal-kobalt litij manganatom ili niklom{{1} }kobalt litij aluminat kao katodni materijali i kobalt kao katodni materijal. Stabilizatori su nezamjenjivi. Ternarni litij ima veliku gustoću energije i može osigurati dulji vijek trajanja baterije. Do 2017. cijena ternarnih litijevih baterija je pala na minimalnih 1,4-1,5 juana/Wh, što je u osnovi isto kao i litij-željezo-fosfat. Porast trojnih baterija važan je razlog da Ningde era prestigne BYD.
It's getting harder for SMEs
When the leaders in the industry change their positions, other small and medium{{0}}sized companies in China's power battery industry also experience the industry's cold and warm - the largest of which, Waterma, had an installed capacity of only 2.3GWh in 2017. This company and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which ranked fourth last year and is also a listed company, only have a gap of 0.4GWh in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries, which is not even a fraction of the capacity of power batteries under construction between the two parties-Waterma 2020 The planned annual production capacity is 20GWh, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a higher target of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is mainly engaged in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, achieved a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73 percent .
Chengfei Integration, which is mainly engaged in the lithium battery business, achieved an operating income of 2 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04 percent ; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -77.3428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16 percent , while the company's net profit in 2016 was as high as 137 million yuan. This is Chengfei Integrated's first loss in ten years. Chengfei Integration mainly produces lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its main customers are new energy buses, which are more affected by policy decline than passenger cars.
Ozbiljan višak kapaciteta baterije
Podaci pokazuju da je u 2017. godini instalirani kapacitet novih energetskih baterija za vozila u mojoj zemlji bio 36,27 Gwh, što je povećanje od oko 20 posto na godišnjoj razini-u odnosu na{5}} godinu, što je bilo daleko od 50- 60 GWh prema procjeni industrije na početku 2017.; a tehnički put litijevih baterija doživio je velike promjene. Tržišni udio energetskih baterija premašuje 44 posto, što se udvostručilo u odnosu na 2016. To je također nešto što Jian Ruiwu ne može očekivati.
S druge strane, proizvodnja i obujam prodaje novih energetskih vozila u mojoj zemlji prošle godine bio je blizu 800,000 jedinica, što je povećanje od 50 posto u odnosu na 2016.; proizvodnja novih energetskih putničkih vozila dosegla je 478,000 jedinica, godišnje-na-porast od više od 200,000 jedinica. Očito, stopa rasta instaliranog kapaciteta energetskih baterija ne može pratiti stopu rasta proizvodnje i prodaje novih energetskih vozila, jer se promijenila struktura proizvodnje i prodaje novih energetskih vozila, a udio osobnih automobila i specijalnih vozila naglo se povećao. . Pod silaznim trendom tržišta novih energetskih osobnih vozila, nova energetska osobna vozila koja nastavljaju ostvarivati veliki napredak postala su jezgra rasta performansi baterija za napajanje.
At the same time, the power battery production capacity has been seriously excessive. It is reported that in 2017, the production capacity of my country's entire power battery industry exceeded 200GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100GWh in 2020.
The prospectus of CATL also reflects this. In 2017, CATL's lithium-ion battery production capacity was 17.09GWh, output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54 percent ; while in 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92 percent and 92.37 percent , respectively, and the company's capacity utilization rate was 96.92 percent . It has declined for two consecutive years, with a decline of 20 percent . This may be the company's response.
U Kini je BYD najopasniji konkurent u CATL eri. Ovog bivšeg gospodara baterija CATL je prošle godine pretekao po isporukama. Kako bi ponovno zauzeo vodeću poziciju baterije, BYD je napravio dvije važne prilagodbe: jedna je prilagoditi put tehnologije baterija. Od 2017. BYD je počeo koristiti ternarne litijeve baterije u svom poslovanju s osobnim automobilima, a čisti električni modeli proizvedeni 2018. i kasnije također će koristiti ternarne litijeve baterije. Međutim, tvrtke za baterije kao što su CATL i Guoxuan Hi-Tech također su počele širiti kapacitet proizvodnje trojnih baterija. Drugi je odvojiti posao s električnim baterijama i upravljati njime neovisno kako bi opskrbljivali druge tvrtke za nova energetska vozila.
In the Ningde era, it has won nearly 30 percent of the domestic power battery market share - when it reaches twice BYD's, whether BYD can return to the first place will be one of the highlights of China's power batteries in the future.
