Hoće li 2022. godine poskupjeti nova vozila na energiju?
Posljednji statistički podaci Kineske automobilske udruge pokazuju da je u studenom ove godine proizvodnja i prodaja novih energetskih vozila dosegla 457,000 odnosno 450000, sa stopom prodora na tržište od 17,8 posto, od kojih je stopa prodora na tržište novih energetskih osobnih vozila dosegla 19,5 posto. Od siječnja do studenog, proizvodnja i prodaja novih energetskih vozila iznosila je 3,023 milijuna i 2,99 milijuna, što je 1,7 puta više-u odnosu na{15}}godišnju. Ouyang Minggao, akademik Kineske akademije znanosti, predviđa da će domaća prodaja novih energetskih vozila ove godine doseći oko 3,3 milijuna, a sljedeće godine 5 milijuna.
While the production and sales of new energy vehicles have risen rapidly, subsidies have also accelerated. According to the "Notice on Improving Financial Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" jointly announced by the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries in April 2020, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10 percent and 20 percent respectively on the basis of the previous year. percent , 30 percent . Although the detailed rules for the subsidy decline in 2022 have not yet been issued, more and more car companies are preparing for the further decline of the subsidy.
Neki popularni{0}}modeli počeli su povećavati cijene
Dana 24. studenog cijena inačice s-pogonom-na stražnje kotače domaćeg Tesle Model 3 i Model Y povećana je za 4.752 juana, sa 250.900 juana i 276,000 juana na 255.652 juana odnosno 280.752 juana. Za razliku od prijašnjih poskupljenja uzrokovanih rastom cijena sirovina, važan razlog za ovo povećanje cijena je pad subvencija. Podrazumijeva se da je trenutno vrijeme isporuke za Model 3 i Model Y u prvom tromjesečju 2022. godine.
Igrom slučaja, od 13. prosinca, prava na kupnju automobila za tri modela Xiaopeng Motorsa smanjena su u različitom stupnju. Među njima, paket prava na kupnju automobila P7 smanjen je za 5,000-10,000 juana, P5 je smanjen za 4,000 yuana, a G3i je snižen za 5000 juana. Zatim uživajte u metodi 0 kamata ili niske kamate. Insajderi iz industrije vjeruju da je, osim ograničenja u lancu opskrbe, pad subvencija važan razlog da Xiaopeng smanji svoja prava na kupnju automobila.
Istodobno, pad subvencija postao je trik za automobilske tvrtke za poticanje potrošnje. Dana 7. prosinca, propagandni poster ID.4CROZZ i ID.6CROZZ koji je službeno objavio FAW-Volkswagen napisao je: Odbrojavanje do pada nacionalnih subvencija, počevši od 1. siječnja 2022., nova državna subvencija za energiju bit će smanjena za 5.400 juana!
It is worth noting that in the face of the delay in order delivery and the further decline of subsidies due to the upgrade of the production line, NIO adopted the strategy of "paying for itself". Weilai said that users who paid a deposit to buy ES8, ES6, and EC6 before December 31 this year and purchased the car on March 31, 2022 can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the national subsidy standard in 2021, that is, the vehicle standard. Models with battery packs (75kWh) and long-life battery packs (100kWh) can still enjoy subsidies of 16,200 yuan and 18,000 yuan respectively. At present, the delivery cycle of NIO is about 2 months, that is, for users who book cars before the end of the year, the delivery time of new cars is all in 2022. That is to say, the price difference arising from the subsidy decline in 2022 will be borne by NIO.
In addition, Nezha car sales staff also said that as long as the vehicle is ordered this year, even if the pick-up time is next year, you can still enjoy this year's subsidy policy.
"There is a high probability that there will be no significant increase"
Različite automobilske tvrtke imaju različitu moć pregovaranja na tržištu. Za vodeće automobilske tvrtke, malo povećanje cijene ima mali utjecaj na očekivanu prodaju; za automobilske tvrtke u fazi uspona, radije će snositi gubitak nego riskirati pad prodaje. . Politika predviđa da će se norma subvencije za nova energetska vozila u 2022. godini smanjiti za 30 posto na temelju 2021. godine, a to je posljednja godina subvencija za nova energetska vozila. Dakle, hoće li pad snage od 30 posto uzrokovati povećanje cijene velikog broja novih energetskih vozila?
"At present (new energy vehicle) sales have basically entered the market-oriented track, and subsidies have little impact. Although there are no subsidies, non-subsidy policies such as double credits, carbon emissions, and travel restrictions will still be used. At the same time, with the rise in oil prices, fuel Compared with electric vehicles, the cost of using a car increases. Therefore, the impact of the subsidy decline will not be too great." Ouyang Minggao believes.
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher on new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, said that whether new energy vehicles will usher in a price hike in 2022 depends on the game of various factors. "The negatives include tight battery supply, no more mature new battery routes to replace, difficulty in large-scale recycling and utilization of existing lithium-ion battery raw materials, and declining subsidies. The increase in the price of points, the reduction of the cost of other parts by car companies, and the disguised increase of profits by car companies in after-sales or OTA (over-the-air download) upgrades can also absorb some of the price increase factors."
In addition, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, also made it clear that in 2022, the price of new energy vehicles "is unlikely to increase significantly."
Automobilske tvrtke uvest će novi krug testova
It is understood that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been implemented since 2009, and it has been 12 years. In 2019, subsidies fell sharply, which led to the reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, the reshaping of the pattern, the sharp drop in sales, and the elimination of some car companies that depended on subsidies to survive. At present, my country's new energy vehicles have made great strides from policy-driven to market-driven, and the market penetration rate has been increasing. With the substantial increase in the cruising range of power lithium-ion batteries, the gradual improvement of charging infrastructure, and the support of various local preferential policies, consumers have The acceptance of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher. Under this development trend, the decline or cancellation of subsidies for new energy vehicles will be inevitable.
In fact, even if the price of vehicles does not increase, the pressure on car companies is increasing. Problems such as chip shortages and skyrocketing battery raw material prices have plagued car companies. The superimposed subsidy decline may further compress the profit margins of car companies, and car companies with low sales will fall into a more difficult situation. Chen Qingtai, chairman of my country's Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, pointed out that although non-subsidy support is still available, for the market, next year will be a "hurdle", and car companies will usher in a new round of tests.
"After the subsidy is withdrawn, the relevant technical rules such as battery energy density, power consumption per 100 kilometers, etc. are no longer required, and even if the battery replacement subsidy is canceled, the cost-effective models that meet the needs of users will develop better, and the head aggregation situation will also improve. It is easier to form." Cao Guangping said.
